Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-06-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-06-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro had been under pressure on Friday, even though the NFP figure came below expectations. The unemployment rate ticked lower by 0.1% however and even though the NFP expectations have not been met, the job growth had been solid, supporting a further normalization of the monetary policy, thus a rate hike in December. From a technical point of view, the selling pressure resumed around the 1.1660-1.1669 resistance area.
As you can see from our chart, the price is now 60 pips below the area and we should see the price action heading south towards the 1.1574 and 1.1535 support areas, where some profit taking should occur.
On the upside, we expect the buyers to have a limited impact, but if they manage to push the price higher, 1.1624 and the 4h chart 20 EMA should act as a barrier and as a new entry point for the sellers.
- In terms of the London session, we have a calendar packed with data. German Markit Services PMI and Markit PMI Composite are due at 08:55 am. At 09:00 am, the same figures for the EU will follow. Also, PPI figures for the EU will come out at 01:00 am.
- FOMC member Yellen will hold a speech at 01:00 pm.
After a spike lower following the release of the employment figures from the US, the US dollar managed to erase all the daily losses and closed on positive. Looking at the bigger picture, the price action structure points towards a continuation of the bullish trend, since the fundamentals support the US dollar. If Donald Trump’s fiscal measures will manage to get the congress vote, than further optimism will follow.
Until then, let’s analyze a bit the short-term technical picture. The price action is now located little above the 20 EMA and if the bulls resume the upside, we should see them putting pressure on 1.0018 and 1.0038, where some selling interest emerged last week.
If the sellers will manage to break below the 20 EMA, 0.9965 and 0.9939 are two of the levels bulls could watch to get long again. We expect the downside to be limited.
- From Switzerland, CPI figures are due at 08:15 am GMT.
Cable had a pretty choppy performance on Friday, following the Thursday slump. However, even though the bulls managed to balance the order flow, the upside had been limited thus far and we could see further gains on the downside, if the dollar will manage to gain more ground against the other majors. We believe there is room for more downside, since the US dollar has way more advantages against sterling at the current time.
If consolidation will continue, sellers might want to rejoin the bearish trend around the 1.3087 level, or 1.3120, the lather being the one where selling started quite strong on Friday. As a whole, we expect the price action to remain below the 20 EMA.
On the downside, strong support stands around the 1.3036-1.3025 area, where we have seen a bullish leg starting to form in the past. If sellers will be strong enough to break that zone, further slides could follow towards the 1.2977 support level.
The price action managed to reach again the 114.35 key resistance area in late Friday trading, but the sellers managed to push the price 30 pips lower. However, given the fact that the price action had been supported by the 4h chart 20 EMA and selling pressure had been weak, that communicates a breakout higher could take place in the following days, triggering more buying orders.
If the price action will remain above the EMA and bulls will resume, we expect them to put pressure again on the 114.23 and 114.35 resistance levels. In case a break above them will take place, a continuation towards the 115.00 resistance could follow.
On the other hand, if sellers manage to control the order flow, we expect them to have a limited impact on the price and 113.76 +113.58 should act as a barrier to cap the downside and new buyers could step in there.
The aussie had also been under pressure on Friday, following the surge in the US dollar momentum and now we have the price action located well below the 20 EMA, suggesting that the sellers are in control of the order flow and we could also see some further movement to the downside in the next few days. As long as the price will remain below the EMA, we expect the 0.7723 weekly low to be under pressure in the next few days.
So far, the price action managed to find support around the 0.7639 level and given the price action prior to it, we expect a breakout and continuation towards the 0.7623 weekly low. A break lower should mean a continuation towards 0.7609 is next.
On the upside, 0.7660 and 0.7677, where the EMA is also currently located, should act as resistance and bring new sellers to the market.