Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-08-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-08-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro weakened further against the US dollar yesterday and the price managed to reach and break below the 1.1574 support and weekly low. Following a brief break below, the bulls resumed and managed to push the price back above the level, but so far it does not seem that a change of hands had taken place. The price action is still below the 20 EMA and we should see stronger bullish momentum in order to assume that more upside gains could follow.
The 20 EMA and the 1.1602 resistance level held pretty nicely thus far and if the selling pressure will resume, 1.1574 and a possible continuation below yesterday low, towards the 1.1531 support might be possible.
On the other hand, buyers would need to break above the above mentioned resistance zone in order to be able to push the price towards the 1.1624 and maybe, 1.1660 key resistance area, where the strong selling begun.
- From France, Imports, Exports and Trade Balance are due at 07:45 am GMT.
- No important economic data due from US.
Dollar-swiss continues to consolidate inside a symmetrical triangle, as you can see from our chart. Since the consolidation formed after a strong bull move, we assume that a continuation higher is a little more favored, but anything can happen at this point. Wait for the break of the triangle in order to have an idea about the future direction of price. We believe that the market expects to see whether the US new fiscal code will be voted, as there are doubts about that at the present time.
On the upside, first short-term resistance lies around the 0.9994, very close to the current price, while above, the 1.0018 and the top line of the triangle could also bring new sellers to the market. An upside break will confirm the bullish trend will continue.
If sellers manage to drive the price lower, the bottom line of the triangle + 0.9965 will follow as support, while a break below the triangle will suggest a weakening of the bull trend and a deeper retracement will come next.
Cable had a pretty choppy activity in the last 24 hours. The price retreated lower after reaching our 1.3174 resistance level, only to find support around the 1.3133 and 1.3110 levels and them headed towards the resistance. So far, we see some selling interest around the 1.3174 level, but the price action structure suggests there could be more bullish gains. You can notice that the bulls manage to balance the order flow after each dip and so far, the bearish influence had been weak.
However, the bulls will need to manage to break above the 1.3174 resistance level and yesterday high in order to manage to recover more of last week lows and a possible target could be the 1.3225 level.
On the downside, if selling interest will drive the price lower, we expect buyers to respond around the same levels they did yesterday, 1.3133 and 1.3110 and we also believe that the price action won’t breach strongly below the 20 EMA (if it happens, it will be a bearish signal).
There are no significant economic indicators due to being published from UK today.
Dollar-yen rebounded higher in the first part of the day, yesterday, but resumed the downside and it is now trading again below the 20 EMA. We expect the price to continue to hover around the 114.35 key resistance area. Even though we have seen some rejections off of it that does not mean the bullish trend ended, from the contrary we are in a consolidation phase right now and further selling signs will be needed to confirm the sellers truly have control over the order flow.
If bulls will push the price higher, 114.08 and the 4h chart 20 EMA could act as a resistance zone and above that area, the 114.35 level stands as the most important one, where selling interest had been strong so far.
On the downside, we see demand emerging around the 113.76 as the price started to climb higher twice in the last three days from that point. Below it, 113.57 and 113.26 could act as support levels as well.
The Aussie is still under pressure since the price action continues to be located below the 4h chart 20 EMA. The bulls are weaker and we can notice that by the smaller corrective moves that form on the chart. As long as the price action will be below the 20 EMA, current weekly low could be again under pressure and a breakout below it seems the most likely scenario. We should see a stronger reaction from the bull side in order to assume that selling interest had been absorbed.
In terms of the technical levels, 0.7635 and 0.7625, current weekly low, could act as short-term support and if the selling pressure will be too strong, then a further continuation lower, towards the 0.7582 area could be possible.
On the upside, 0.7660 and the EMA are the first resistance zone and the bulls will need to overcome it in order to manage to reach 0.7677 or 0.7699.