Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-09-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-09-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro-dollar consolidated in a very narrow range yesterday and the interesting thing to notice so far is that the selling pressure had not resumed impulsively around the 4h chart 20 EMA. That happened several times in the past and we assume a further consolidation higher above it could take place in the short-term. Only strong selling around it could signal the bearish trend will be on its track to extend lower.
Bulls will encounter resistance around the 1.1602 and the EMA and we can see that happened yesterday as well. A break above yesterday high could mean 1.1624 and maybe 1.1660 key resistance area could be reached.
On the downside, a breakout below 1.1574 will mean current weekly low will be under pressure and a breach of it send the price towards the 1.1531 support, where bulls might attempt to balance the order flow.
- From Germany, Imports, Exports and Trade Balance are due at 07:00 am GMT.
- From US, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims will follow at 01:30 pm GMT.
Dollar-swiss had also consolidated in a very narrow range, inside our triangle formation and it is interesting that the price did not manage to touch either lines of the triangle in the last 24 hours. That suggests volatility is very low and profit taking is most likely in place. Also, we suspect the market awaits some fresh news regarding the fiscal plan from the US that could be adopted in the next few weeks.
For the last few hours, the price action begun to show signs of weakening and if the sellers will continue to push the price lower, the bottom line of the triangle and the 0.9965 support level could cap the downside. A strong break below them will open more ground towards 0.9939.
On the upside, if buyers rebound, we could see the price heading towards the 1.0018 support and the top line of the triangle, located little above it. The weekly highs will be under huge pressure if a breakout on the upside takes place.
- From Switzerland, Unemployment Rate is due at 06:45 am GMT.
Despite the weak activity we’ve seen on the other two pairs, Cable had been under pressure and lost around 90 pips, top tick to bottom tick, only to find support around the 1.3087 level and recover some of the daily losses. Looking at the price action structure, we can see that yesterday’s move was quite impulsive, 10 consecutive bearish candles having formed on the 1h chart, pointing that selling interest had been high.
If the retracement that is currently in play will manage to extend higher, 1.3143 and 1.3174, where the selling begun yesterday, could follow as resistance and cap the upside. A breakout above the lather will mean 1.3225 will be next.
If the selling pressure resumes again and drives the price below the 20 EMA, yesterday low around the 1.3087 could be under pressure and a break below it will mean 1.3057 support will follow then.
Dollar-yen had been under pressure yesterday and the price broke below the 113.58 support. Even though the price action rebounded and until the end of the day, more than half of the losses were recovered, the fact that a breach below 113.58 took place could bring up new sellers into the market, since last Friday lows had been breached yesterday. For the last three hours selling had resumed quite impulsively and yesterday low could be under pressure today as well.
At the present time, the price is located at 113.67, very close to the 113.58 support and judging by the current price action the support will most likely be reached shortly. In case a break below yesterday low will take place, then 113.26 support will follow.
On the upside, the bulls will need to drive the price action above the 20 EMA and 114.08 resistance is the first area where selling pressure might resume. 114.23 and 114.35 key resistance area will generate stronger selling pressure.
Aussie managed to recover yesterday and the price action is now above the 4h chart 20 EMA. Despite of that, the bull move is not too impulsive and we should see a clear break above the 0.7699 resistance to see a continuation higher. So far, the price did not manage to extend too far from the 20 EMA, which shows that there is some selling interest which caps the upside and stops the bulls from pushing the price higher.
If the selling pressure will resume impulsively and drive the price action below the 4h chart 20 EMA, we believe it could head towards the 0.7639 and 0.7625 levels, where the current bull move had started.
A continuation above the 20 EMA will mean the bearish momentum had weakened and 0.7699 followed by the 0.7720 could follow as resistance levels.