Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-10-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-10-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro had been building up on the upside yesterday and erased all the weekly losses. The price action is now heading towards the 1.1660 key resistance area, being located only 20 pips below it at the time of writing. So far, the 20 EMA acted as support a few times and buyers resumed around it impulsively and drove the price higher, making new highs and pushing the price closer to the key resistance area.
If the leg up will continue to extend higher, 1.1660-1.1669 key resistance area follows as resistance and selling interest should be high around it. Above it, the 1.1688, last week high should follow then.
On the downside, sellers will need to drive the price action below the 20 EMA towards the 1.1623, where the first short-term support is located. 1.1602 and 1.1574 will follow, if the selling pressure will continue to increase.
There are no important headlines due from EU today and in the US we have a bank holiday.
The dollar-yen ended the consolidation phase and broke below the triangle structure. As we mentioned in our yesterday daily forecast, after the break the price headed towards the 0.9939 where it found support. The price action is still heading higher at the time of writing and looking at this point a new retest of the broken triangle pattern is not excluded. Also, the 4h chart 20 EMA should also play a major key.
If the bulls will continue to recover yesterday losses, we expect sellers to step in around the 0.9965 and the bottom line of the trend line, where the 20 EMA is also located. Since we have a confluence of selling interest zone at that area, we could see selling pressure emerging again impulsively.
On the downside, sellers should first need to break below 0.9939 and yesterday low in order to be able to manage to reach 0.9902 and 0.9880 support. Keep in mind that trading volume will be small, especially in the US session.
Cable also found support around the 1.3087 level and then started to trend higher yesterday. Sterling had been favored against the US dollar as the last rumors suggests the tax reduction measures proposed by Donald Trump’s administration will be implemented starting from 2019, not from 2018, as the market expected. Because of that, the US dollar had been under pressure yesterday and retreated huge chunks of gains against all major currencies.
In terms of the technical analysis, cable is now located above the 1h chart 20 EMA and has been consolidating lower for the entire Asian session. We expect the EMA to act as support and in case a break below it takes place, then 1.3108 and 1.3087, where the bull move started yesterday, could represent demand zones.
On the upside, if the bulls will continue to push the price higher and manage to overcome yesterday high, then 1.3174 and 1.3194 are potential next targets. It all depends on the new headlines from the US. A deeper dollar retreat is expected if the rumors will materialize.
- From UK, we have a handful of indicators that are due today. Industrial Production figures, Trade Balance and Manufacturing Production figures will come out at 09:30 am GMT.
Dollar-yen had also lost ground yesterday, following the rumors from the Unites States, but so far the price found support around the 113.26 level. After a brief break below it the price action is now heading north. The price action is still located below the 4h chart 20 EMA, which shows that the overall bullish trend had weakened. We can see that so far, the sellers started to drive the price lower from the 20 EMA two times and if the price action will hit the EMA again, a new round of selling could follow.
Currently, the price is approaching the 113.58 resistance and if the bulls will break above it, then the EMA and 113.76 resistance level will follow. We expect the upside to be limited above the EMA, 114.01 following as resistance.
On the downside, if a new round of selling will start, we expect the 113.26 and yesterday low to be under pressure again, while if a breakout below them takes place, the price action could continue towards the 113.01 or 112.83 support levels.
The Aussie had a pretty choppy evolution in the last few days as we can see the price moved above and below the 4h chart 20 EMA. We are in consolidation phase right now and given the fact that this consolidation structure followed after a bearish move, a continuation lower might be possible. On the other hand, if the current consolidation will turn out to be an accumulation of buyers, then the bulls will recover more of the lost ground in favor of the sellers.
At the present time we are little above the 20 EMA and if the selling pressure resumes and drives the price below it, 0.7660 and 0.7639 are expected to act as support and absorb the selling order, as it happened so far this week.
If the price action will continue on the way up, above yesterday high, 0.7720-0.7729 could be the next destination and we expect stronger selling interest there.