Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-13-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-13-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro managed to rebound against the US dollar last weed and the price closed around the key resistance area located around 1.1660. From a technical point of view, that communicates the sellers lost momentum and that is due to bad rumors that came from the US. It seems like the new tax code will take more time until it will be implemented, more than the market anticipated and that had reduced investors’ appetite.
If the outcome will point towards an implementation of the tax code starting from 2019, that could draw more pressure on the US dollar and the euro will continue to gain ground towards the 1.1724 resistance level, where sellers might reenter the market.
If the selling pressure will resume impulsively around our key resistance area, we expect the price to head towards the 4h chart 20 EMA. A break below that zone will be needed to confirm that the bearish trend resumed and more downside gains could follow towards the 1.1573 support level.
- From US, Monthly Budget Statement will be published at 07:00 pm GMT.
Last week, the dollar-swiss volatility returned and the price action broke on the downside the triangle pattern. From an order flow perspective that communicates a short-term weakening of the bullish trend might take place and that theory could materialize, if the new US tax code implementation will be delayed. On the other hand, better than expected US news, could mean the bulls will break again into the triangle patter and put pressure on the weekly resistance area, located around the 1.0030 price level.
We’ve seen the price retracing higher on Friday, following the slump that took place on Thursday and if the bulls will continue on the way up, we expect them to encounter heavy sellers around the 4h chart 20 EMA and the broken bottom line of the triangle.
If the selling pressure will resume, then 0.9939 and 0.9902, below last week low, could be reached. We expect to see how the price action will react around the EMA. If sellers will resume strongly there, expect more downside gains.
There are no significant economic figures due from Switzerland today.
Cable continued to recover last week, following the BOE meeting that put pressure on sterling. Even though it had a choppy performance at the middle of the week, the price action ended up above the 1.3174 key resistance level and because of the fact that the market managed to generate new higher lows and higher highs, we expect the recovery to continue. Unless a significant break below the 1.3108 support takes place, bulls should continue to be in control.
In late Friday trading, when trading volume had been thin, due to the fact that it was the end of the trading week + bank holiday in the US, the price action managed to retrace lower, erasing a part of the daily gains. We expect the downside to be limited by either 1.3174 or the 20 EMA, where bulls might start to drive the order flow again.
On the upside, 1.3228, Friday high is our first resistance area and it could be under pressure if the bulls rebound. 1.3275, where the selling started during the BOE meeting, could follow if the bulls continue to push the price higher.
The US dollar managed to recover some ground against the yen on Friday, but still the price action is located below the 20 EMA and if we compare the consolidation with the prior move, we can see that sellers are still in control and bullish momentum is reduced. As long as the price keeps trading below the EMA, expect more selling pressure and downside gains to follow. Only a breakout above it could signal renewed bullish momentum emerged.
In late Friday trading, the price action found resistance around the 113.58 resistance and we expect that area, backed by the 20 EMA to cap the upside. Above it, we have the 113.75 and 114.01, but as a whole, the upside should be limited.
If selling pressure resumes again, 113.26 and last week low could be under pressure again and a break lower will open more ground towards 113.01 and 112.83, where buyers could resume again.
The Aussie had been consolidating for the entire week and as you can see from the chart, the choppy performance does not point out towards a certain future direction. The price action moved below and above the 4h chart 20 EMA, communicating that there is a balance in terms of bearish and bullish force. The consolidation structure won’t last forever and we expect to see in which side the break will take place.
On the upside, the EMA + 0.7677 could act as a resistance zone, while a breakout above it will send the price towards the 0.7699 and 0.7720. In that case, it will mean the bulls gained control over the order flow.
On the other hand, if the sellers will continue to push the price lower, 0.7639 and 0.7624 support levels, could be again under pressure. If bulls won’t manage to hold the ground there, the bearish trend will extend further.