Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-15-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-15-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
We’ve mentioned in our yesterday daily forecast that the price did not retraced lower impulsively after reaching the 1.1660-1.1669 key resistance area and a breakout on the upside was likely. Looking at our chart, you can see that is exactly what happened, the price action advancing impulsively on the way up, reaching the 1.1800 area. We should see some consolidation short-term, but the calendar for today is busy as well.
If the price will retrace lower from the current point, bulls could rebound again around the 1.1779 or 1.1751 support levels. We expect the price action to continue to float above the 4h chart 20 EMA.
On the upside, if the bullish trend will manage to extend beyond yesterday high, we expect stronger resistance to follow around the 1.1832 and 1.1858 levels, where we’ve seen some rejections in the past.
- From EU, Trade Balance figures are due at 10:00 am GMT.
- From US, Retail Sales figures and CPI will follow at 01:30 pm GMT.
Selling pressure resumed impulsively around the 4h chart 20 EMA yesterday and the price action managed to extend lower, confirming that the breakout below the triangle structure was a clear bearish sign. Looking ahead, we have important economic data due today from the US and expectations are not too positive. We expect to see how the actual numbers will be, but weaker data should add extra pressure on the US dollar.
If the downside leg will manage to extend further, we should see short-term support around the 0.9870 area, while a break below it will send the price towards the 0.9836 level.
On the upside, the bulls should have limited impact on the price, but if a corrective structure builds up, 0.9921 and 0.9939, where the 20 EMA is also located, should manage to cap the upside by bringing new sellers into the market.
There are no important economic indicators due from Switzerland today, only the US data should be in focus.
Cable surged on the upside yesterday, even though the inflation figures from the US did not advance further as expected. Now the market perception is that the BOE raised rates a little too soon, which could push the sterling higher short-term. Also, since there is no clear information about the implementation of the US tax plan, the US dollar is under pressure and should continue to be under some clarification will be provided.
The upside leg found resistance around the 1.3174 level, which we have mentioned last week as well and retraced lower during the Asian session. If the corrective structure will extend, 1.3108 and 1.3087, where the bullish leg started yesterday, are expected to provide support.
On the upside, 1.3143 and 1.3174 should act as resistance if bullish pressure resumes. A breakout above yesterday high will mean a continuation towards 1.3221 resistance should follow.
- From UK, Employment figures and Average Earnings are due at 09:30 am GMT.
Dollar-yen had also been under pressure yesterday and the sellers managed to briefly break below last week low. For the last few hours the price managed to rebound higher, showing that there is some bullish interest. Looking ahead, since the sellers managed to generate new lower lows, we expect the bearish leg down to extend further and that could take place today, if the US data will disappoint.
Current daily low stands at 113.01 and if it will be breached again, we expect 112.83 and 112.58 to act as short-term support levels. A clear break below the 113.00 area will also confirm a double top type formation which could trigger additional selling.
On the upside, we expect the price action to remain below the 4h chart 20 EMA and if a break above it takes place, 113.58 and 113.76 should act as resistance and cap the upside.
The Aussie consolidated yesterday and broke lower today during the Asian session. So far the price managed to find support around the 0.7575 support area. That is an area you should carefully watch, since we see strong bullish momentum emerging around it in the past. We expect at least a short-term retracement higher to start, if not more. A clear break below it should add extra bearish momentum and extend the already established trend.
If our key support area will hold and bulls will start to push the price higher, 0.7607 and 0.7624, where the 20 EMA is also located, should act as short-term resistance levels.
On the downside, a break below our support will mean a continuation towards 0.7532 is very likely. The US data should play a major key, so we do not suggests jumping in the market too early.