Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-16-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-16-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro continued to surge on the upside in the first half of the day, yesterday, but gave up all the gains against the US dollar until the end of the day, as better than expected retail sales and CPI figures had been released from the US, supporting the already positive views on the economy. The price action formed a pin bar on the daily chart which could spark sellers attention so watch that + the economic calendar as we have a few important figures today, as well.
Currently, the price action broke below the 1.1784 short-term support level and it seems like a further continuation towards the 4h chart 20 EMA might take place soon. 1.1751 and 1.1724 level should act as support and try to balance the order flow, if reached.
On the upside, renewed bullish pressure will mean 1.1804 and 1.1832, could follow as resistance. Buyers could try a new upside push before fading, but we expect the economic picture to play a major key, so keep an eye on the calendar today.
- From EU, Consumer Price Index figures are due to being released at 10:00 am GMT.
- From US, Continuing Jobless Claims and Initial Jobless Claims will come out at 01:30 pm, together with the Import and Export Price figures. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will follow at 02:15 pm.
Dollar-swiss also spiked higher yesterday, following the release of the US data, confirming that the market participants regarded the news as positive for the US dollar. As a whole, the price action structure seems still poised to the downside, as we have selling dominance since the start of the week. It is important to see if the bulls will manage to keep the price action above the 1h chart 20 EMA. Else, in case of a strong break lower, yesterday low will be under pressure.
For the entire Asian session, the price action consolidated little above the 20 EMA and if the consolidation higher will continue, 0.9902 and yesterday high could be reached again. A continuation above those points will open more space towards 0.9921 and 0.9939.
On the downside, sellers will need to break impulsively below the 20 EMA in order to confirm that they are willing to drive the price action lower. If that will be the case, 0.9868 and 0.9846, where the price started to climb yesterday, are expected to act as support.
Cable slumped short-term following the release of the UK employment figures, but consolidated higher until the time of writing. This is due to the fact that a bullish structure was in play and now sellers find it hard to break below the 1h chart 20 EMA. The pattern seems like an impulsive vs. corrective move and that is why we expect a breakout lower. On the other hand, if bulls manage to keep the price action above the 20 EMA, they could build up and try to break above yesterday high.
For the first scenario to take place, we need to see a clear break below the 20 EMA. That will show us that sellers resumed impulsively. 1.3143 and 1.3108 could represent potential next targets if sellers will be in control.
On the way up, if the price will continue to bounce above the 20 EMA and generate new higher lows and higher highs, we expect 1.3212, yesterday high to be under pressure again. Selling activity should also emerge there, so watch that area carefully.
- From UK, Retail Sales figures are due at 09:30 am GMT.
Dollar-yen also managed to erase half of the daily losses yesterday, but so far the price action found resistance around the 113.10, key resistance area. We have two attempts of an upside break thus far and none of them took place, which shows that sellers are willing to defend that zone from breaching. Overall the price action structure still points for additional downside gains, but the economic calendar for today could spark again buying interest, as it happened yesterday.
If sellers will resume around the 113.10 area and push the price lower, a break below the 20 EMA is expected and 112.74 + 112.58 could follow as support levels.
On the upside, the bulls will need to break above yesterday high in order to confirm that they managed to overcome the sellers and a further continuation towards the 113.57 should follow then.
The Aussie is still under pressure as the price action structure points out, but our support area around the 0.7570 zone managed to hold until now, proving what we have said yesterday. However, the price action is still trading the 4h chart 20 EMA and the bullish corrective moves are much weaker than we anticipated, meaning the sellers are still in control and trying to go long at the current point would not be advised.
If the sellers will start to drive the price action lower again, they will encounter support around our area. A clear break lower will mean a continuation towards 0.7532 will be under way.
On the upside, 0.7607 and the EMA are expected to bring new sellers into the market. 0.7624 and 0.7639 follow above the EMA, so there should be limited space for the buyers.