Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-17-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-17-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The US dollar had been under pressure for a few hours, as the US tax cut plan enter the final stages towards adoption. The weakness was due to the fact that investors expect inflation to rise in the US because of that measures. However, higher inflation means faster Fed rate hikes, which could spark new demand for US dollars in the near future. We expect to see if the bullish move up will continue or fade.
Currently, the price action is hovering around the 1.1804 resistance level and we can see that the sellers are trying to erase some of the bullish gains. A further continuation on the downside will mean 1.1784 and the EMA could follow as support. A strong break below yesterday low will suggest a weakening of the bullish trend.
On the other hand, if the bulls will continue to push the price up, they will first need to overcome 1.1804 in order to be able to reach 1.1832 and 1.1860, where the current weekly high is also located.
- From EU, Current Account and Construction Output are due at 09:00 and 10:00 am, respectively.
- From US, Building Permits and Housing Starts will follow at 01:30 pm.
The leg up continues to extend higher and each time the sellers manage to push the price lower, buyers resume at a stronger pace and generate new higher highs. From a price action perspective, that communicates the bulls are willing to buy higher after each dip, thus they are committed to extend the overall bullish trend. We are still around the 4h chart 20 EMA, but if the price will break above it, that will trigger additional buying.
0.9921 and 0.9939 short-term resistance level are the ones sellers could watch, above the 20 EMA. A break above them will open more bullish ground towards 0.9974.
On the downside, if sellers resume at a strong pace and a breach below the EMA takes place, 0.9880 and 0.9868 should come into play as support. We expect the dollar to be favored, due the recent tax cuts measures, as the economic projections will improve.
Cable also edged higher in the last 24 hours and recently managed to briefly break above the 1.3228 weekly high. The sellers already resumed and the price is back below the level, but so far since the price managed to generate higher lows and higher highs that is telling us the bulls were in control and if that will change, we should see a strong counter trend response from the sell side.
If the sellers will continue to push the price below the 1.3228 resistance, 1.3212 and 1.3174, where the 20 EMA is also located, should follow as support. The 20 EMA capped the downside two times in the recent days, so bulls could watch that area.
If the bulls will continue to break higher, 1.3267 and 1.3299 resistance levels are due and that could mean the losses that followed the BOE meeting will be erased. However, we expect to see how the market will further digest the tax cuts from US.
Dollar-yen found again resistance around the 4h chart 20 EMA yesterday and the selling pressure resumed afterwards, the price reaching the 112.45 area, where the previous weekly low was located. However, an ascending trend line comes into place around that point and since we had strong bullish interest emerging around the line in the past, you should carefully watch how the price action will unfold.
If the bulls will resume again around the trend line, 112.74 and 112.96 could follow as short-term resistance levels. The EMA and 113.23 will represent a stronger area where sellers could resume again.
On the downside, if sellers manage to break below the trend line impulsively, that could communicate the bullish trend will weaken further and further slides towards the 111.00 area will follow.
The Aussie is still under pressure and we can see that the price action is getting squeezed between the 4h chart 20 EMA and our key support area around the 0.7570 zone. From an order flow perspective, that suggests the sellers are superior and since we do not see any significant bullish sign, we expect a breakout lower and an extension of the already established bearish trend.
If that will materialize and sellers will break below the key support zone, we expect further downside gains to follow towards the 0.7532 support.
On the upside, buyers should have small space for action, as the resistance will come into play around the 20 EMA and 0.7607. Judging by the current price action structure, the upside should be very limited.