Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-20-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-20-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro managed to break impulsively above the 1.1660 key resistance area and following the breakout, the price action continued to head up impulsively. The pair ended last week with a 130 pips gains, which shows that first, the head and shoulders pattern had been negated and second, dollar seems to be under pressure due to the fact that the expected tax cuts had still not been approved (the Senate will vote on its own tax cut version at the end of the month) and there have been news regarding Russia involvement in last year election.
From a technical point of view, even though a retracement took place following better than expected US data, we are still in a bullish environment and if the bulls will start to push the price, 1.1818 and 1.1832 are two of the short-term resistance levels where sellers might resume. A break above them will open further ground towards last week high around 1.1860.
On the downside, if the retracement will continue to extend lower, 1.1758, where the price action started to rebound on Thursday, could follow as support and a breach below it will mean further selling could drive the market towards 1.1724.
- From Germany, Producer Price Index figures are due at 07:00 am GMT, followed by ECB President Draghi speech at 02:00 pm.
A bearish parabolic structure could be observed on the 4h chart and thus far, the 4h chart 20 EMA seems to be the pivoting point as the sellers resumed impulsively each time the price reached the EMA. Looking ahead, as long as the conditions remain the same, we expect the structure to extend well below last week low. The swiss franc seems to be benefiting from the recent political worries from US, as president Trump is still trapped in the scandal regarding Russia involvement in the last year election.
Getting back to the technical analysis, the price action ended last week below the 20 EMA, which shows that there was determination from the sell side. A continuation below 0.9870 short-term support will mean sellers will put pressure on the last week low around the 0.9844 level.
On the upside, we expect sellers to rejoin the downside move around the 0.9902 and the EMA. We also have the 0.9921 and 0.9939 levels, where sellers could resume, so given that confluence of selling interest levels there, the upside momentum should be limited.
Following a slump at the beginning of last week, due to increased worries over UK PM’s ability to handle the hard Brexit procedures, cable managed to rebound and cover all the losses, ending the week with an approximately 60 pips gain. The price action is now located above the 20 EMA, having treated it as support three times in the entire week. Since new higher lows and higher highs are being made, bulls could continue to advance higher.
The first resistance area stands around the 1.3212-1.3228, where the price managed to end the week. Since the price did not manage to hold above the area, some short-term weakness could occur, but a break higher will mean last week high will be under pressure.
On the downside, the 20 EMA and 1.3174, located below it, are expected to act as a support area and bring new buyers into the market. A strong break below the EMA will suggests a weakening of the bullish momentum took place and 1.3140 support will follow.
Dollar-yen managed to break below an ascending trend line on Friday, which communicates the fact that the sellers are in control of the order flow and as long as the price action will remain below the line, further downside gains could follow. We can see a parabolic structure on the 4h chart, with the 4h chart acting as a resistance zone. Since a strong break below the trend line took place, our assumption is that sellers will continue lower.
However, if the bulls manage to recover some of the Friday losses, they will encounter resistance around 112.21 and 112.39, where the trend line is also located. Only a break above the line could open more ground towards the 20 EMA, but at this point, that scenario looks pretty unlikely.
On the downside, 111.99 support, where the bearish leg had been capped last week, could act as short-term support, but if the selling pressure will overwhelm the buyers, a continuation towards 111.67 will be next.
The Aussie had been under pressure last week as well and the price action managed to break below our key support area located around the 0.7569-0.7577 zone. Also, we’ve spotted a long-term ascending trend that had also been breached. The price action closed last week 20 pips below the trend line, but we suggest caution at this point because the selling pressure had been driving the price for a decent amount of time and a retracement higher could take place.
The trend line area is the exact place where a retracement could begin, so even though a break below it took place, buyers could resume at any time. If they will do that, they will need to breach above the trend and then will encounter resistance around the 0.7607 level.
On the downside, if the support area mentioned at the beginning will act as resistance and keep the price below the trend line, 0.7550 and 0.7532 could follow again as support on the downside.