Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-21-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-21-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
We’ve had a pretty choppy activity yesterday, as the price slumped after the open, then erased all the gains and slumped again, closing the day towards the lows. This was due to rising political uncertainty in Germany, where cancelor Angela Merkel did not manage to form a government and according to latest headlines, a new round of election could follow in the short-term horizon, a better alternative than a minority government.
From a technical point of view, the price action found support around the 1.1724 level yesterday and if the bulls won’t manage to cap the downside, we expect more downside gains towards the 1.1702 and 1.677 support levels.
On the upside, if the bulls rebound, 1.1756 and 1.1768, short-term resistance levels could put some problems for the bulls and above those two levels, 1.1804, where the upside had been capped yesterday, could follow.
- From US, Existing Home Sales figures are due at 03:00 pm GMT, followed by Fed’s Yellen speech at 11:00 pm.
Dollar-swiss resumed the upside and is now trading above the 4h chart 20 EMA. However, the bearish parabolic structure that started to build more than a week ago is still in play at this moment, but due to the fact that there was a bullish trend in play for a long time, each significant dip is a good opportunity for buyers to reenter the market. Selling pressure could resume any time, but so far there is no sign regarding that.
The price action should break below the 4h chart 20 EMA and manage to also close there, in order to confirm that sellers regained control over the order flow and further selling candles could drive the price towards 0.9902 and 0.9880.
On the upside, 0.9940 area looks like a decent resistance zone and we could see sellers entering the market there, if reached. A breach of that zone could mean a continuation higher towards 0.9970 is not excluded.
Cable continued to break higher yesterday and the fact that last week high had been breached raises confidence that the bullish structure could advance further. The optimism was due to increased hopes that the Brexit negotiations will ultimately have a positive outcome and that is why sterling managed to gain momentum short-term. Even though a retracement lower took place, we already see new bullish momentum emerging.
The price managed to find support around the 1.3228, previous high and it is now located above it by 20 pips. If the bulls will drive the price higher, we expect them to encounter resistance around the1.3267 and 1.3299 levels.
On the downside, 1.3228 and 1.3212 could act as support levels. Keep in mind that the 20 EMA is also located around the lather, so we have again a confluence of bullish signals there, which increases the probability of stronger bullish momentum.
- From UK, Public Sector Net Borrowing is due at 09:30 am GMT.
Dollar-yen rebounded higher yesterday and it is now trading above the longer-term trend line, located around the 112.50 level. Since the price action managed to rebound strongly even though a downside break took place, that communicates there still was bullish interest and as long as the market will hold above the trend line, there is a strong possibility of a continuation higher. During the Asian session, the price action retreated towards the trend line, but we expect to see how the market will behave once the liquidity gets hot again.
The 1h chart 20 EMA and the trend line are expected to act as a support zone, but a new break below them will mean 112.21 and 111.99 could represent potential next targets. We believe there is potential for a retracement lower, before any significant bullish move.
On the upside, thus far 112.67 managed to cap the upside and if the bulls will manage to break above it and above current daily high, a continuation higher, towards 113.00 level could be possible.
The Aussie was under pressure yesterday and the bulls did not managed to drive the price above the 0.7565-0.7575 support + long-term trend line. Selling pressure resumed around that area and last week low had been tested a few hours ago as the sellers resumed impulsively following the release of RBA minutes. We maintain our view that a retracement higher and a break back above the trend line could take place, since the bearish trend looks overextended and a retracement seems the most likely scenario.
Thus far, the price action did not managed to close below last week low, which shows that there is still some bullish interest at that level. On the upside, if the bulls continue to push the price, they could head again towards yesterday high, were stronger selling resistance will be located.
On the downside, if the sellers will break and close below the 0.7535 a continuation towards the 0.7521 and 0.7514 seems pretty likely. We expect at least some short-term consolidation around those levels.