Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-23-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-23-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro had been favored for the last 24 hours and new weekly highs had been made. Even though the FOMC Minutes from the US were positive for the dollar, the euro managed to continue higher, due to the fact that a FED rate hike in December is already priced in and dollar weakened following the release. Today we expect activity only in the European session since we have a holiday in the US.
Technically speaking, the price action is currently located around 1.1831 resistance level and the last 4 candles are green and cover more than 80 pips. If the leg up will continue to extend, 1.1860 and 1.1881 resistance levels could also be reached.
On the downside, we expect the sellers to have a limited impact on price, but if a corrective move takes place, 1.1820-1.1808 support could bring new bulls to the market and below that zone we have 1.1782 and the 4h chart 20 EMA, where stronger bullish interest should be located.
- From Germany, GDP figures are due at 07:00 am GMT. At 08:30 am, Markit PMI Composite, Markit Services PMI and Markit Manufacturing PMI will follow. The last three indicators, for the EU this time, will also be published at 09:00 am.
We’ve mentioned in our yesterday daily forecast that the sellers managed to generate several red candles in a row and the downside could extend further. Looking at our chart, the price is located almost 100 pips lower at the time of writing, proving that the selling interest resumed impulsively. Since we have holiday in the US, we expect thinner liquidity and reduced volatility, compared to yesterday.
The price action found short-term support around the 0.9806 level and if a corrective structure will build up, we expect 0.9829 and 0.9845 to act as resistance level and generate fresh selling pressure.
On the downside, if the selling pressure will resume, we expect 0.9794 and 0.9771 to absorb the selling orders. In the past, each significant impulsive selling leg had been followed by a 50% retracement higher and the pattern could occur again.
We’ve also mentioned yesterday that cable could find strong support around the 4h chart 20 EMA and that is exactly what happened. The price action managed to briefly break above the 1.3320 key resistance area and weekly high, ending the day almost 100 pips from the daily lows. However, the bullish momentum faded around the key resistance and thus far we do not see sustained buying at that point.
A corrective structure could begin to build and at least some profit taking should be seen following yesterday’s impulsive move. If that will be the case, we expect the price action to continue to float above the 20 EMA and 1.3299 + 1.3267 to act as support levels.
On the upside, buyers could find it tough to manage to overcome 1.3320 and 1.3337 resistance levels. Only if a strong break above them takes place we could see continuation towards 1.3375 and 1.3409.
- From UK, GDP figures and Total Business Investments are due at 09:30 am GMT.
The US dollar weakened significantly against the yen yesterday and now it is clear that the pullback towards the broken trend line was just a corrective move. The price action broke lower below the line and below the 20 EMA, broke below last week low and reached 111.09 support level, where the downside had been capped thus far. The parabolic structure is still extending lower, so we expect further weakness in the near future.
From a technical point of view, a corrective higher is not excluded and 111.45, 111.66 + 111.86 are short-term resistance levels where sellers could resume. Going long in this kind of environment won’t be advised, but looking at those resistance levels could generate some trading signals.
On the downside, 111.09, where the downside had been capped thus far, followed by 110.90 and 110.67 could act as support, if the selling pressure will resume again.
After hovering for a while around the trend line, the Aussie resumed the upside impulsively and reached a high of 0.7622. We’ve mentioned several times in the last few days that a retracement higher above the 20 EMA should take place and it finally materialized. However, we’ve been in a bearish trend for a long time and buyers at high points won’t be too good, since sellers should see the current upward surge as a new opportunity to rejoin the trend.
Thus far, 0.7620 resistance managed to cap the impulsive bullish move and if the price will retrace further it could be supported by either 0.7609 or 0.7594. We do not expect a strong break below the trend line in the short-term.
On the upside, 0.7620 and 0.7626 level should act as a resistance zone and could pose some problems for the buyers. Only a strong breach above them could open more ground towards 0.7641 and 0.7649.