Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-27-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-27-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro had been on high heels last week as better than expected economic data raised optimism over the future development of the EU activity. Investors did not take into account the political uncertainty from Germany and it was a good choice, since latest headlines point towards an agreement between the Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, far better than a minority government.
Trading activity had been weak during the Asian session and if the price will continue to consolidate lower, we expect support to follow at 1.1910 key swing point. 1.1878 and 1.1860 are another two critical areas buyers could watch.
On the upside, if the price action will manage to break above last week high, we expect resistance to follow around the 1.1973 and 1.2004 levels. Selling interest should emerge around those levels, since that happened in the past as well.
- From US, New Home Sales figures will be published at 03:00 pm GMT. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index will follow at 03:30 pm.
US dollar had been under pressure against the swiss franc as well last week as worries from the Fed regarding poor inflation development sparked again. With a rate hike in December almost priced in, the market participants are now focusing on potential future rates and the odds of a March 2018 rate hike decreased below 40%. Looking ahead, this week we have speeches from current and future Fed Chairman and they could provide some hints.
From a technical point of view, the price action is floating below the 4h chart 20 EMA and the fact that the EMA had now been touched for a few days, suggests the sellers are driving the order flow impulsively. A rebound higher is not excluded, but buying should be short-lived since selling pressure could resume around 0.9825, where EMA is also located, or 0.9845.
On the downside, so far bull managed to cap the sellers around the 0.9792 level and if a breach below last week low takes place, 0.9773 and 0.9746 are the next support levels you should watch.
Cable continued to advance higher last week, due to dollar weakness and positive expectation regarding the Brexit negotiations. The price action covered all the losses that followed the BOE meeting and it is located little below the key resistance area around 1.3325 at the time of writing. That area should be watched carefully, since selling pressure emerges impulsively several times around it.
However, the price action had been trending up, supported by the 20 EMA and as long as the structure does not change, we could see the leg up extending towards 1.3364 and 1.3408, where sellers might resume again.
On the downside, a clear break below the 20 EMA will signal short-term weakness, but sellers would need to keep the gains intact in order to confirm that they truly regained control. Below the EMA, 1.3275 should follow as support. Since it is the first day of the week, we do not expect any major moves.
Dollar-yen broke below a critical ascending trend line last week, confirming that the selling pressure had been strong. The price action is still located below the 20 EMA and the corrective move that is currently in play does not cover too much ground. Thus far, the sellers continue to be in control and that scenario does not seem to change. Only a clear break above the 20 EMA could spark some short-term buying.
As long as the EMA will cap the upside, we expect 111.09 support, where the downside had been capped last week to be under pressure again. A break below it will open more ground towards 110.90 and 110.67.
On the upside, buyers will need to clear resistance around the 20 EMA and 111.66 level in order to be able to reach 111.86 or 112.15. At this point, the odds of a significant retracement seems small, so going long is not a good idea.
The Aussie managed to recover some ground last week, after briefly breaking below a long-term trend line. However, since the move followed a long period of selling, the upside had been short lived and selling resumed at the end of last week. It also continued today during the Asian session, although at not a fast pace. Looking ahead, will be interesting to watch how the market will treat the trend line in the next few days.
If the bulls will manage to keep the price action above it, we could see a new rebound higher towards 0.7624 resistance, where selling started last week and a breach above is not excluded, 0.7644 and 0.7674 following above.
On the downside, 0.7596, where the market found support recently, followed by the trend line are expected to act as support. 0.7575 follows below the trend line, but a clear break lower will mean 0.7536 area could be revisited again.