Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-28-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-28-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro managed to gain around 40 pips against the US dollar in the first half of the day, yesterday, but all the gains had been erased until the end of the US session, after the New Home Sales figures that had been published surged to new record highs. Dollar benefited from that, but thus far the price action is still above the 4h chart 20 EMA, so no significant selling signal appeared until now.
The activity had been weak during the Asia session today, but we see the price attempting to reach the 1.1910 resistance level. Above that level, we have 1.1938 and 1.1956 levels, where sellers might want to rejoin.
On the downside, below the current daily low, 1.1878 and the 20 EMA are expected to act as support. 1.1860 follows below the EMA and we expect the downside to be limited, due to that confluence of indicators.
- From Germany, Import Price Index figures and Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey are due at 07:00 am GMT.
- In the US, another two Home Price Indices will be published at 92:00 pm, followed by three speeches from Fed officials.
US dollar weakened against the swiss franc and even managed to briefly break below last week low. However, the price rebound higher following the housing data from US and all the daily losses had been covered. However, looking at the longer term, the bullish leg is still too weak, compared to the selling pressure previous to it. Stronger bullish momentum will be needed to confirm that bulls managed to regain control.
On the upside, resistance follows very close from the current point, around the 20 EMA and 0.9825 level. We’ve seen sellers reacting to that level last week, and that could happen again. If not, 0.9845 and 0.9868 are due to follow.
On the downside, if the selling pressure resumes strongly around the 20 EMA, 0.9722 + last week low would be under pressure again and a break lower will open more ground towards 0.9773 and 0.9746.
Cable had a pretty choppy performance from the starting of this week, surging to new highs and then erasing all the bullish gains. Caution is advised at this point for two reasons: one, the price closed on a daily basis, below the 1.3322-1.3336 key area and second, we have a pin bar on the daily chart, which could signal a false break had taken place. It the signal will be legit, further sterling weakness should be seen in the next following days.
Thus far, the bulls had been in control during the Asian session, but the momentum is still low and price variations the same. If the 20 EMA will turn out to be a pivoting point and stronger buying will emerge there, a break above the key are and a continuation towards 1.3364 seems the most likely scenario.
On the other hand, renewed selling pressure that will drive the price below the EMA and key area again, could bring further price weakness and 1.3278 + 1.3230 should be seen on the horizon.
- From UK, National Housing Prices will be published at 07:00 am GMT.
Dollar-yen also managed to rebound higher, towards the 20 EMA, where the upside had been capped thus far. The EMA acted as a floating resistance for a decent amount of time and there is no surprise sellers are rejoining there. However, from a fundamental point of view, we have a series of critical events this week, culminating with the US Senate vote on the tax cut plan on Thursday. The event should bring high volatility, so keep an eye on any new highlights.
Getting back to the technical analysis, if the selling pressure will extend, we expect 111.09 and 110.90 support level, where we’ve seen reactions last week and yesterday, to represent entry locations for the bulls.
On the upside, a breach above the 20 EMA will mean the next resistance levels will follow around 111.45 and 111.66. A strong break above the lather will mean a continuation towards the broken trend line is very likely.
- From Japan, Retail Trade figures are due at 11:50 pm GMT.
The Aussie rebounded around the 4h chart 20 EMA and surged above last week high, but the gains had been also erased following the housing data from US. We’ve seen this pattern on the other pairs as well, but in case of this one, we are still in retracement mode and the bullish momentum for the last few days had been pretty weak, raising concerns of a new downside leg, which could emerge this week.
At the present time, we are still above the trend line, but no significant gains could be seen, showing that the buying power is weak. A continuation lower will mean 0.7596 and the trend line will follow as support. Breaking it will mean sellers are willing to drive the price action lower.
On the upside, if the 20 EMA will generate a new round of buying, 0.7624 and 0.7644, current weekly high, could be revisited again.