Daily Forex forecast analysis 11-30-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 11-30-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The pair had been trading below the 4h chart 20 EMA, as the US GDP data came above expectations. However, the 1.1816 level proved to be a strong support, since the price rebounded after touching it and now, the price action is located right at the 20 EMA. The economic calendar is quite busy today as well and don’t forget it is the last day of the month, so the prices could go wild at some point.
If the 20 EMA and 1.1860 will act as a resistance zone and manage to cap the upside, we expect a new round of selling that could drive the price action towards 1.1835 and 1.1816.
On the other hand, a clear break above the EMA will suggest the bullish momentum resumed and a continuation towards the key resistance level located around 1.1910, could be the most likely scenario.
- CPI figures from France will come out at 07:45am, followed by employment figures from Germany at 09:00 am. Unemployment Rate and CPI figures for the EU will be published at 10:00 am.
- From US, Personal Consumption Expenditures figures, Personal Spending, Personal Income + Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless Claims are all scheduled for 01:30 pm.
Dollar-swiss did not manage to have a clear direction yesterday and even though the US GDP advanced by 3.3%, the price action retreated towards the 20 EMA after an upward push. We can see some support around the EMA, since the price action started to rebound again, a few hours ago, during the Asian session. If the price will manage to stay above the EMA, we believe there is potential for more upside gains in the short-term.
At the time of writing, the price action is located around the 0.9845 resistance level and if it will manage to breach to it impulsively, then a continuation towards 0.9868, where the upside had been capped yesterday and 0.9880 seems pretty likely.
On the downside, sellers will first need to break below the 20 EMA so the price action could weaken further towards 0.9825 and 0.9803 support levels.
- From Switzerland, KOF Leading Indicator will come out at 08:00 am, followed by Real Retail Sales at 08:15 am.
Cable had been one of the big gainers yesterday as the upside leg continued to extend impulsively. The price action broke above all of our resistance levels that we’ve mentioned in the daily forecast, suggesting that the appetite for buying has been high. The latest news point out that there is optimism regarding the Brexit negotiations, which could have an end sooner than most of the market participants expected.
The price action is well above the 20 EMA and the bullish parabolic structure does not show signs of weakening for now. A continuation higher will push the price towards 1.3511 and 1.3563 resistance levels.
On the downside, sellers should have a limited impact on price, but if a retracement lower will take place, 1.3455 and 1.3430 are two of the short-term support levels which could bring new buyers into the market.
Dollar-yen consolidated above the 20 EMA and then manage to extend higher impulsively, now being located around 65 pips higher than the 20 EMA. Judging by the latest price action development, we believe there is room for a continuation higher, which could head into the previously broken trend line. Watch closely the headlines, since today we have a widely expected US tax cut vote in the Senate.
The consensus is that the tax cut vote will be positive and traders had been pricing in that scenario lately. However, if a surprise takes place, considering that the Republicans have a small majority, we expect the price action to slump towards the 20 EMA or even lower.
On the other hand, positive outcome will propel the price higher and we expect 112.71 and the trend line to act as a strong resistance levels. A break back above the trend line will confirm that bulls have regained control over the order flow.
- From Japan, inflation figures and unemployment numbers as well are due to being released at 11:30 pm GMT.
The Aussie broke below the trend line yesterday, but today during the Asian session the bulls resumed around the 0.7555 support level and drove the price towards the trend line again, where it is currently located. The fact that there is buying interest is a sign that bulls will not give up too early and we could see a new strong leg up. However, if the US dollar will be favored again, a new move on the downside will be next.
Currently, the price action is right at the trend line and the selling pressure had not emerged thus far, which could be taken as a bullish sign. A continuation higher will drive the price action towards 0.7624 or even 0.7644 again.
On the downside, if sellers will keep the upside limited below the trend line and 20 EMA, 0.7575 and 0.7555 are due to follow again as support.