Daily Forex forecast analysis 12-01-2017 – we analyzed the upcoming currency pairs and events of the day that could impact the Forex market, These analysis are published here each day.
Forex Forecast Analysis 12-01-2017 include information on EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDJPY & AUDUSD
The euro resumed the upside, even though the latest US figures had been better than expected and the tax cuts plan is due to being approved by the Senate today. However, it seems like the market had been pricing in the fact that the EU and UK managed to reach an agreement. The UK agreed to contribute to the EU budget after the exit, which sparked optimism that a good deal for both parties will be reached in the end.
Technically speaking, the price action is now around the 1.1910 and it seems like the market will continue to advance higher, since not selling signs have emerged thus far. 1.1943 and 1.1960 are our next resistance areas which should be watched closely.
On the downside, we expect bulls to support the upside if a retracement lower takes place. 1.1882 and the 20 EMA are expected to act as support. A clear break below the 20 EMA will be treated as a bearish sign.
- Markit Manufacturing PMI from Germany is due at 08:55 am and for the EU at 09:00 am.
- From US, ISM Prices Paid and ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published at 03:00 pm.
Dollar-swiss continued to advance higher, but found strong resistance around the 0.9868-0.9880 resistance area. The price slumped but still managed to find support around the 20 EMA. Looking ahead, since a clear break below the 20 EMA did not occur, we could see a new rebound higher towards the resistance area. If the selling pressure resumes, all the weekly gains until now could be erased.
At the time of writing, the price action is hovering around the 20 EMA and 0.9845 support. A break on the upside will spark more bullish momentum and drive it towards our key resistance area.
On the downside, sellers will need to break below yesterday low in order to be able to reach 0.9803 or 0.9792, where we’ve seen reactions from the bull side in the recent past.
Cable also continued to break higher, in line with the EURUSD. Recent optimism around the Brexit negotiations had pushed sterling aggressively on the upside and thus far the move does not show signs of weakness. The price action is floating well above the 20 EMA and it’s been more than two days since the EMA had been touched. Today, a US Senate vote on the tax cuts plan is expected and the attention could move towards the US dollar short-term.
The downside had been very weak for the last 24 hours and we have the price action around 15 pips below the yesterday high. A continuation above the high will open more upside ground towards 1.3563 and 1.3593.
On the downside, if a corrective structure starts to build up, we expect 1.3511 and 1.3479 to act as short-term support levels and bring new bulls into the market. We do not expect a break below the EMA anytime soon.
- From UK, Markit Manufacturing PMI is due to being published at 09:30 am GMT.
Dollar-yen continued to surge on the upside for the last 24 hours, even though the US dollar had been under pressure against all major currencies. The price action is now closer to the broken trend line and given by the latest development, a break back above it seems very likely. How the price action will react around the EMA is the most important aspect. Some selling interest should emerge there, but buyers could enter again on dips.
On the upside, we expect resistance to follow around 112.71 level and the trend line. Around the trend line, we also have the 113.00 area, where some sellers might also be located. Buyers will need to overcome those levels in order to continue above the trend line.
On the downside, if the selling pressure resumes, we expect 112.38 and 112.15 levels to bring new buyers into the market. 111.88 and the EMA should cap the downside, if the sellers drive the price below the first two support levels.
The Aussie had a pretty choppy activity for the last 24 hours and even though some bullish interest emerged, the upside had been capped around the broker trend line and 4h chart 20 EMA. All the bullish gains were erased, but thus far the buyers managed to keep the price above the 0.7555 support level. Since we are below the 20 EMA, that communicates the sellers are stronger than the buyers and a continuation lower seems the most likely outcome.
If the price action will continue to trade below the 20 EMA, we expect sellers to put more pressure on the 0.7555 support level. A break below it will open more room towards the 0.7536, where the bullish leg started.
On the upside, if bullish interest resumes, we expect 0.7575, the EMA and the broken trend line to act as resistance. Only a break above the EMA could spark additional bullish momentum.